![]() See methodology below for more details.ġ. More importantly, the changes in the rankings reflect the ups and downs of their political influence. The provinces in which the top leaders worked previously are highlighted to help gauge top leaders’ regional coalitions and their political power. Beijing isn’t counted in the rankings because all regional politicians end up working there as they rise in power. Notes: Rankings based on RPPI scores (available upon request). Provincial Power Rankings from 1992 – 2022 The main insights from our index are 1) the correlation between economically and politically powerful provinces is strongest under the Hu/Wen administration but weakens under Xi 2) Shanghai is particularly resilient when it comes to political power 3) Xi’s power is reflected in the notable changes in provinces’ rankings.įigure 1. It provides further quantitative evidence for the regional coalitions that have dominated Chinese elite politics since 1992 (see detailed methodology below). Based on an original Regional Political Power Index (RPPI), combined with provincial economic indicators, we estimated the correlation between the two from the Jiang Zemin to the Xi Jinping era (see Figure 1).Ĭovering the 14th to 19th Central Committees (CCs), the RPPI essentially traces the rise and fall of provinces’ political power over 30 years. We found the correlation between provinces’ economic strength and political power shifted depending on the leadership that was in power. ![]() But that political power is far from equally distributed and doesn’t always favor provinces with the largest economies. Like most large, decentralized countries, politics are mainly local in China too, and political power flows through its 31 provinces and regions. ![]() Texas and New York aren’t too shabby either when it comes to economic might (each state is about the size of the Brazilian economy) and political representation.īut does such a correlation hold for Chinese provinces? It would be the world’s fifth-largest economy if it were its own country, and it has the highest representation in Congress given its population size. In general, the “big states,” or those with considerable economic heft, also tend to be the most politically powerful states.Ĭalifornia is the quintessential example. States have a lot of power in the US political system. ![]()
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